The Surging Wave of Dwelling Values Across Australia

Following a 7.5% decline from April 2022 to January 2023, the national housing value index (HVI) has rebounded impressively by 10.2%, hitting consecutive record highs since November of the prior year.

With the exception of Darwin, all capital cities witnessed an upswing in dwelling values. Notably, Perth led the charge with a robust 1.9% increase, trailed by Adelaide and Brisbane at 1.4% and 1.1% growth, respectively. Conversely, Melbourne saw a marginal dip of -0.2% in the first quarter of this year. The quarterly growth rate accelerated from 1.4% in the previous year’s fourth quarter to 1.6% in Q1 2024. Despite facing challenges like rate hikes and housing affordability issues, the housing market remains buoyant due to an imbalance between housing supply and demand. Various factors, including affordability, demand-side pressures, and supply inadequacies, contribute to the divergent housing value trends across regions. Moreover, Western Australia experienced a notable influx of both interstate and overseas migrants, amplifying housing demand significantly.

Following a dominance of growth in the upper quartile throughout the previous year, the spotlight has shifted to the lower quartile in most capital city markets. In the first quarter of this year, lower quartile home values in combined capital cities surged by 3.1%, outpacing the 0.7% increase seen in the upper quartile. This shift, observed across major capitals, reflects the growing demand for properties in the middle-to-lower value range, driven by escalating housing affordability concerns and reduced borrowing capacity. Regional housing markets echo similar diversity, with regional Victoria emerging as an exception with a slight decline of -0.3% in the first quarter. Despite a notable 9.5% increase in home sales volume compared to the same period last year, the market is still rebounding from the downturn experienced at the onset of the prior year, though sales are estimated to be 3.7% higher than the decade’s previous average for the same period.