CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) reported a 0.8% increase in September, marking eight consecutive months of growth
This growth followed a slightly revised-down 0.7% rise in August, bringing the quarterly growth rate to 2.2%. The housing market’s pace has slowed due to rising advertised housing stock levels.
During the September quarter, Adelaide saw the highest capital gain at 4.3%, followed by Brisbane at 3.9% and Perth at 3.6%. In contrast, Hobart’s values declined by -0.2%, reaching a new low.
CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, noted that the housing market’s performance in each city is linked to supply dynamics. Cities with the highest capital gains have lower supply levels, while Hobart, where values are declining, has maintained above-average supply levels.
The national HVI has recovered by 6.6% since January but remains 1.3% below its April peak. Tim Lawless predicts the national HVI may reach a new high by November.
Dwelling values have already set new records in Perth and Adelaide, while Brisbane is close to reaching a new peak. Hobart and Canberra have more ground to cover to reach a nominal recovery, with values still significantly below their previous highs from last year.
In the housing market, the premium segment in capital cities is losing steam, with the upper quartile of properties showing slower growth at 2.3%, while the lower quartile is growing faster at 3.2%. This shift is driven by lower-value cities like Perth and Adelaide, where the lower quartile outperforms the upper quartile. In expensive cities like Sydney and Melbourne, the middle market is now leading in growth, possibly due to affordability challenges redirecting demand to more affordable properties.
In contrast, regional markets are trailing behind capital cities, with all ‘rest of state’ regions showing weaker growth compared to their city counterparts. Regional markets collectively grew by 1.1% in dwelling values, far less than the 2.5% growth in capital cities. Softening conditions in regional Australia are attributed to lower demand, as estimated home sales are down by 6.5% compared to the previous year, while capital cities have seen a 1.9% increase in home sales. Most regional markets have low advertised supply levels, putting upward pressure on values, except for regional Victoria and regional Tasmania, where supply levels are above average, leading to lower housing values.
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